One thing is undeniable to me after yesterday’s Florida primary results: I’m not going to be enthusiastic about the next president of the United States. He or she will either be one of the lessers or one of the greaters of the various evils who have made it this far in the process. (Not that they are all of inherently evil character through and through; only some.)

Had I voted in Florida yesterday, I’m virtually certain I would have voted for Rudy. There’s a lot of reasons for this, and all of them are quite moot now. It also wouldn’t have changed the result.

In evaluating the Republican candidates on December 12th (seems like a couple of lifetimes ago now, and politically speaking, it is), I wrote this about John McCain, who at that time was quite weak in the polls but perhaps coming on some in New Hampshire:

I said he was out long before he was out. He remains out. However, if things get badly shaken up amongst the leaders, and Fred is not seen as the solid alternative, McCain could, in theory, pick up those looking for someone who is something of a known and proven quantity. His views on the war in Iraq have proven to be farsighted and principled, and he deserves credit for that and for other things, although I distrust him on much else.

The leaders at that point were Romney, Huckabee and, to an extent, Giuliani. None of them fit the model of what the average conservative voter was looking for to lead the Republican party, for a variety of reasons that need not be belabored now. Fred Thompson looked good on paper, but — oddly for a star of the silver screen — he never tangibly convinced enough people that he was sufficiently energetic and serious about leading the country. So, although McCain is known as an unreliable conservative, he has picked up the votes of those who feel that the devil they know is better than the ideologically incomprehensible Mormon/New Yorker/Baptist preacher with whom they have only lately become really acquainted.

So we head to Super-Duper-Tuesday next week. It seems impossible to see a path to success for Romney, with Huckabee staying in the race. If Huckabee got out, Romney would at least have a Hail Mary’s chance of picking up enough social conservatives to compete. (And, almost needless to say, it seems impossible to see a path to success for Huckabee either.)

When McCain is the Republican nominee, something funny is going to happen, as has also been predicted by others. Those in the media who have always held him up as a lovable maverick are going to look at him with new eyes, now that he is the standard-bearer of the Republican party and the man who might be a strong-on-defense and at least moderately pro-life president. Be ready for a persistent drumbeat about his age and his temperament. By the time November comes, he may even be dead in the water, painted effectively as a a crazy, angry old man on steroids, and this by the same media establishment that has lavished fawning attention on him in the past.

The Democrats also have their troubles, of-course. In terms of just wanting a Republican — any Republican — to win, the best hope is that Hillary Clinton will emerge as a wounded Democratic nominee, having alienated and crushed the fervor of a considerable portion of her base. This is, effectively, what has been happening in the past few weeks. She remains well on track to win the nomination, leading the polls going into Tuesday’s semi-national primary. However, if a big shift in the polls towards Obama is perceived by the Clinton camp, expect even heavier negative attacks against him, including probably some scandalous dirt that will be supplied through surrogates. Hillary simply will not lose this for want of using everything she’s got — both barrels. However, if the polls keep looking good for her, she would prefer not to risk the backlash, and just ride it out with a smile on her face. Her husband — for all the criticism of him in the media — has already done his job in emphasizing to the Democratic party nominating electorate that, hey, this Obama is a black guy. I suspect that a lot of white and Hispanic Democrats will vote against him on the basis that “America is not ready to vote for a black president,” while easily excusing themselves for not, in fact, being ready. We shall see. I think the Democrats would do their party a world of good by putting the Clintons behind them. I think Obama is not hampered by the built-in negatives that Hillary has, and would be tougher for the aged McCain to match up against.

Of-course, I disagree with Obama’s prescriptions for America’s future at least to the same extent that I disagree with Hillary’s. It’s why as of today I’m looking forward — barring upset in the next 6 days — to making a sour face and pulling the lever for one Senator McCain in November. The Republican party, having chosen such a standard-bearer, will then have to figure out a way to fix itself, and this will likely come initially through a conservative congressional insurgency of some kind. McCain’s choice for Vice President also looms extremely large. Will he pick someone conservatives can genuinely look forward to nominating in 2012, or will McCain be, instead, a, er, maverick, and pick someone who sticks in the craw of the base?

Ugh. It’s rough out there.

While we seek mirth and beauty and music light and gay
There are frail forms fainting at the door
Though their voices are silent, their pleading looks will say
Oh, hard times, come again no more

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