To balance the ledger — not that I’m committed to balance as a rule — I’ll now scribble something on what I have no hesitation in acknowledging as the calamitous slow-motion train wreck that has been the Republican presidential nominating process this time around.

I am assuming that John McCain will ultimately get the nomination, because I just fail to see how either Romney or Huckabee could do so, the realities being what they are. Out in the ether, there is a frustrated debate going on among conservative voters about whether it would be worse to vote for McCain in November and watch him mess things up (and the Republican party at the same time) or whether it would be worse to vote for Hillary or Obama and watch them mess things up (and the Democratic party at the same time).

In the coming days, weeks, and months, John McCain will try certain things to appease the conservative base and motivate them to come out and cast a vote for him in November. He’ll make certain commitments — how far he’ll go, I don’t know. But I know this: All of it is as nothing compared to one fundamental thing, and that is his choice as a vice-presidential running mate. It is customarily the first big decision a nominee is judged upon. In this case, it looms larger than perhaps it ever has before.

The reason it looms so large is because John McCain is 72-years-old this year. It is just commonsense to assume that there is a good chance he will not be seeking a second term in 2012. This gives him a clear responsibility to choose a likely successor, a person who the party can see itself getting behind four years from now. If that person is a solid and appealing conservative, then John McCain will have gone a long way towards persuading the conservative base that they should just swallow it and get out and vote for him. Four years is four years. If, on the other other hand, McCain gives the nod to Mike Huckabee (who is gathering a not insignificant number of delegates) or to some other individual with highly dubious conservative credentials, then I believe that will just tear it. You can put aside any other assurances McCain may have given conservatives. That act would be a meaningful and tangible and weighty way of saying to them: I don’t care. Not only do you have to put up with me, but I’m leaving this guy around after I’m gone to continue sticking in your craw and messing up what you think is your political party. Rather than accept that, I’m convinced that a lot of conservatives will decide, “Forget the championship this year; it’s rebuilding time.” McCain’s chances, such as they are, of winning the presidency in November will evaporate. His VP choice trumps just about everything else, because it is something he can neither go back upon later nor finesse. It will be what it will be and it will count for the future. It will truly be a test not only of his judgment, but of the decency of his intentions towards the Republican party of which he will then be the nominal head. He’d best choose very carefully indeed.

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