Yours-truly returned from travels just in time to turn on the TV and catch some of yesterday’s goings-on at the Democrat convention. I may disagree with him on just about everything, but God bless ol’ Teddy Kennedy — one must assume it was an heroic and Herculean effort for him to get out there and make his speech despite his terrible illness. Michelle Obama’s speech was just the inoffensive goop she needed to wallow in, and it was written competently for her.

As of the morning news shows today, last night’s feel-good kick-off was already well over (did it even really happen?) and the 2008 Clinton National Convention had well and truly begun. What will Hillary Clinton say today? What will Bill Clinton say tomorrow? It’s all anyone wants to know. (Oh, and there’s some curiosity as to whether that Barack Obama guy will be able to pick up the pieces on Thursday.) With Obama’s pick of Joe Biden merely greasing the slide for his poll numbers, no Republican could have scripted a better slow-motion disaster for the Democrats than the one currently unfolding. It’s rather mind-boggling.

It must be clear to everyone that Obama made a huge error in not confronting and frankly slapping down the Clintons before now. He thought that by being accommodating he could avoid a damaging fight at the convention. So, he gave the Clintons everything they wanted (roll call vote, prime time speeches on successive nights, paying off their debt) and in return they are still effectively fighting him at every step and keeping a stopper firmly clamped on the bottle of goodwill from which he so desperately seeks to drink. He’d have been better off showing strength by saying to the Clintons weeks ago: “Listen. I won. You lost. Get it through your heads and get in line or I’ll see to it that you’re declared to be disloyal to the Democratic party and cast out into the darkness.” Sure, he would have lost a lot of Hillary voters — but he’s losing plenty in the current scenario anyway. On the other hand, he would have gained a stature that would have helped him garner votes across the board.

Joe Biden is a VP pick who does nothing for Obama other than highlight his deficiencies. It smells of being a pick by committee, where Biden was the one left after others were ruled out for this reason or that, and it speaks of weakness more than anything else.

McCain is now perched in the catbird seat. Where Obama faces a divided and nervous Democratic convention, McCain has the opportunity to capitalize on recent progress with the Republican base, and create a huge bubble of G.O.P. enthusiasm by picking a solid conservative running mate. If he does that, then I believe this election will officially be his to lose (and he will not be likely to lose it). If he goes the other way, in a mistaken effort to “reach out” to liberals and alleged moderates, then the election will remain a toss-up. Picking a solid conservative running mate will do two big things for McCain: (1) Give the conservative base and the evangelicals a reason to get out and vote big in November and (2) fire up the kinds of grassroots people needed to organize and get the vote out. Couple that with the way the polls have been moving towards McCain anyway, and you’d have to see a huge perception-shifting event for McCain to lose this election.

Take away that enthusiasm from the base, however (as with a pro-choice VP pick) and you can start to see problems with McCain’s turn-out in November. In such a scenario, if Obama’s and the DNC’s organizing is very strong — and there’s every reason to think it will be — then it could well win him the presidency.

For now, in any case, let all the partying continue in Denver.

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