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Thursday, July 27, 2006

Battle Fatigue ...4:09 pm

There’s an interesting perspective on the Israel/Hezbollah war from an Israeli blogger I linked to once before. Then, the Rabbi was pleasantly impressed by an impassioned speech Prime Minister Olmert made the Knesset. At this point in the proceedings, however, he is losing confidence.

The IDF asked Olmert and his cabinet for permission to fight like an army. Olmert said no. Rather, Olmert has ordered increased air strikes in Beirut and the north. He’s succeeding in wrecking Lebanon, but he’s not uprooting the Hizbolla from the bunkers of South Lebanon. Even worse, his lack of understanding is a double touchback in Israel’s own end zone: First, for years, the Palestinians (Sunnis) in Lebanon and the Lebanese Shiites that form the core of the Hizbolla hated each other with a passion. Now, Olmert is forging them together. Second, Olmert’s strategy is forcing the Lebanese man on the street – who up until now hated the Hizbolla – into a flag-waving Hizbolla supporter.

I tend to disagree with his implication at the end of his post that it is the U.S. administration pushing Olmert into this position of conducting only a very limited ground war — although it certainly might be true. However, I think the unique thing about the current scenario is that the Bush administration has been willing to — if you’ll forgive the metaphor — hold back the Red Sea of international pressure and give the Israelis time for a decisive offensive. The Olmert government has demonstrated a reluctance to use the opportunity, and at this point the time has probably passed for such a strategy to be adopted (quite possibly to the chagrin of the U.S. administration). If so, it’s an unprecedented reversal of roles.

Last week, I quoted the Israeli general Udi Adam who said, “I suggest not counting the dead,” on the eve of what might have then become a broad ground offensive. Today, the dead certainly are being counted — not that you can blame the mourners. There seems to be a serious lack of appetite for this war among many in Israel, and of-course that’s understandable from any decent people. However, this could prove to be a particularly bad time to flinch.

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