The situation with the Israeli/Hezbollah ceasefire resembles a house of cards being built on a hammock that’s swinging in the wind. The only question is when the war will start up again — and will Israel be ready? Ralph Peters, recently returned from Israel where he was covering the war, has some thoughts today in the NY Post:

If you’re an Israel supporter - as I proudly admit to being - get ready for some tough love: Not only did Israel’s abysmally incompetent government start a war impulsively and prosecute it half-heartedly, the country’s military leadership failed, too. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, who was going to destroy Hezbollah from the skies, reportedly put his main effort on the eve of war into selling off his stock holdings before his bombs could weigh down the market. Now that’s insider trading!

But that was just one jerk-general dishonoring his uniform. The serious news is that the IDF’s reserve forces were a shambles when they mobilized. Information from an inside source reveals that, when the reserves’ warehouses and depots were opened, key stocks were missing - stolen.

What was gone? Fuel, weapons, ammunition, food, spare parts - all that a modern military needs to go to war. And I doubt it ended up in Iceland.

The IDF has great combat leaders and brave soldiers. But Hezbollah’s boys proved tougher - and we can’t pretty it up. The terrorists were willing - even eager - to die for their cause. Israeli leaders dreaded friendly casualties. And IDF troops - except in elite units - lacked the will to close with the enemy and defeat him at close quarters.

Israel tried to fight humanely. Hezbollah was out to win at any cost. The result was inevitable.

On the ground in southern Lebanon, the IDF was able to muster a ten-to-one advantage around contested villages. But its leaders lacked the guts to do what needed to be done. And Hezbollah’s frontline fighters survived.

You can’t win if you won’t fight.

The IDF needs pervasive reform. Still structured to defeat the conventional militaries of Syria and Egypt, it faced an enemy tailored specifically to take on the IDF. Historical reputation isn’t enough - the IDF must rebuild itself to take on post-modern threats. As one senior American general put it, “The IDF’s been living on fumes since 1967.”

Hezbollah cleared the air.

All this is heartbreaking. I wish it were otherwise. I wish I could back up our president’s surreal claim that Israel won. I wish Israel had won. I wish it had the leadership the Israeli people deserve.

And that’s what’s tragic: Israel’s politicians turned out to be even more profoundly out of touch with their people than the pols in Washington. Israelis were willing to fight. They wanted to win. The rank and file of the IDF would have done what needed to be done. And their leaders failed them.

There will be consequences. Iran’s convinced it’s on a winning course. Syria got away with murder (literally). And Hezbollah will come back more determined than ever.

Meanwhile, countries that pledged to pledge troops for the “peacekeeping” are having a little difficulty delivering. Surprise! The French government is setting a new standard for shamelessness.

France is considering providing only a symbolic force for the United Nations contingent in Lebanon, and not the thousands of troops UN officials had hoped, Le Monde newspaper said on Thursday.

If true, such a move could seriously delay the UN mission, seen as vital to securing peace between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas, or even scupper the whole operation.

Quoting U.N. and diplomatic sources, Le Monde said France might send just a dozen officers and around 200 personnel from an engineering division for the beefed-up UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

At this point any troops the U.N., France or anyone else sends are only going to be in the way and create added difficulties for the IDF in the conflict to come. As in the past, Israel will be held to account for inadvertent hits on peacekeepers, while Hezbollah will use them — with or without their cooperation — as shields, and get little if any criticism for doing so. The backing out of France and others over sending peacekeepers in force might be a golden opportunity for the Olmert government to reverse its mistakes and move aggressively before the situation on the ground becomes even more treacherous for the IDF. That’s easy to say from here. But it’s not easy to see the situation getting anything other than more dangerous for Israel as time passes.

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