Bill Kristol lashes out, understandably, at President Bush for failing to pardon Scooter Libby, who faces 30 months in jail in a political game of “gotcha,” as a result of a prosecution that never should have taken place — as there was no crime involved in the so-called “outing” of Valerie Plame. And, indeed, there was no real need for the Bush administration’s attorney-general, John Ashcroft, to appoint a special prosecutor in Patrick Fitzgerald, and have him begin the inexorable hunt for a scalp — any scalp — that always seems to follow in these situations.

Call me a fool, and events may prove me one as they have before, but I’ve had a feeling all along that Bush has internally, and privately, drawn a red line in this case. That is: I have a feeling that Scooter Libby is not going to spend any significant time in a jail cell. If US District Judge Reggie B. Walton decides that Libby will not remain free while his conviction is appealed, I do think that President Bush will pardon him. If he is allowed to remain free, then Bush will continue to allow the legal process to go forward. “What?” you say — “Bush has stated directly that he will not issue a pardon.” Indeed, spokeswoman Dana Perino’s most recent words are: “The President has not intervened so far in this or any other criminal matter, so he’s going to decline to do so now as well.”

Well, George W. Bush has shown little reluctance to turn on a dime in the past, when it has suited him sufficiently. Think Harriet Miers; think Donald Rumsfeld — two people with whom he was sticking, until, well, suddenly he wasn’t. In those cases he turned on a dime because of his perception (right or wrong) that the realities had simply changed. His steadfast support for both individuals, expressed right up until the end, was abruptly revealed as having been merely rhetorical and tactical. In this case, I would speculate that he believes he has an obligation to let the legal process play out, and he holds out hope for a better ultimate result. He certainly has nothing to gain by saying that he will consider pardoning Libby if Libby is facing imminent imprisonment. But if Libby is actually being led to a jail cell, I think that he will judge that the realities have changed, and I think that his basic decency — and sense of obligation to someone who is paying such a price for loyally serving his administration’s goals — will trump the fear of political fallout, and he will simply act, and deal with the aftermath as necessary.

It’s just a gut feeling I have, and as such not worth a bent nickel, but there it is nonetheless.

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